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jackarabit
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by jackarabit » January 8th, 2021, 6:08 pm

Sighted in CTC: a pod of Whales! Makes me think of Emmy Baker and the Banana Boat gang. Nice going Chris. Let’s get some more new blood in that boat!

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There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

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AnnaRaeGreen
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by AnnaRaeGreen » January 10th, 2021, 12:34 pm

jackarabit wrote:
January 8th, 2021, 6:08 pm
Sighted in CTC: a pod of Whales! Makes me think of Emmy Baker and the Banana Boat gang. Nice going Chris. Let’s get some more new blood in that boat!
That pod of Whales is now floating Boat IV in the CTC (Chris, Alex and Hazel all in the same boat).

Chris - Thanks to Hazel for taking over the job of "propping up the table" from me - but I see she must of got tired of doing that because she drastically improved her time and now no longer has that job either.

I might have another try at that pyramid towards the end of the month, but want to get in a total of 100 k for the Virtual Fall Team Challenge. (Seems like small change compared to some, but that's my goal for the challenge).

Anna Rae
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Slothful1
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by Slothful1 » January 11th, 2021, 2:40 am

All metres are useful, Anna Rae, so don't underplay a 100k contribution!

The useful thing about these challenges is that they help fight the demotivations along the way. In non-challenge months I definitely can talk myself out of a training session with a range of excuses, but if I feel like I'm letting the team down in some way it normally helps to get me to knock something out that day.

Somehow during the holidays I ended up with 4 consecutive days on the BikeErg for the first time in a while. I realised I hadn't gone for the 7 and 14 days in a row badges on Zwift, so that dovetails nicely with the 20 day Stretch challenge here, as well as piling up some metres for the VTC (8 out of 14 done up to yesterday). I'm trying to get the rhythm going before the usual busy Feb / March work cycle takes over, so that I don't lose too much momentum.

Dave

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jackarabit
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by jackarabit » January 11th, 2021, 12:49 pm

Teams help us avoid calling in sick to hobby when we need to get away from it all and indulge our work.—Bass Ackward
There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

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faach1
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by faach1 » January 13th, 2021, 7:16 am

Just looked on the ctc website and seen that Dirk Moller has posted a time for the first time in a while. To quote a Take That song is he “back for good?” :mrgreen: :lol:
19, MLWT, UK, Instagram @faach1

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Rower:
LP: 1:13.9 (2021), 100m: 15.0 (2021), 1': 389m (2021), 2k: 6:33.7 (2021)
Skierg:
100k: 7:30:8.0(2021)

World Record Age Group LWT 1': 389m

skkipper
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by skkipper » January 13th, 2021, 3:59 pm

JonT wrote:
January 6th, 2021, 3:41 pm
The full list of teams can be found here
Our very latest scores and data can be found here
Hi Jon, can you explain how you are calculating projected meters? We are 13 days in and have less than 19 days left, so I would expect projected meters to be more than twice the meters rowed but it is not. I get close to the number left if I reverse the days in and the days left, but not exact.
28 FHWT, 5'8"
Personal Bests
1km - 4:02.2 (2:01.1/500m) | 2km - 8:11.5 (2:02.8/500m)
5km - 21:37.9 (2:09.7/500m) | 6km - 25:59.3 (2:09.9/500m)
4min - 1003m (1:59.6/500m) | 30min - 6771m (2:12.9/500m)
{ working on all the rest }

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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by Marcvo17 » January 14th, 2021, 11:37 am

I think the math works...at least for my numbers.

Today is the 14th....so the model assumes we have completed 13 days with 18 days yet to go...for total of 31 days.

To-date I have 147,264 meters...over 13 days that is 11,238 per day (147,264/13). So with 18 days to go...assuming I continue to average 11,238 per day...that works out to 203,904 over the remaining 18 days (11,238 x 18)...which is what is the model is showing for my projected meters.

Where you might get confused...as I initially did...the “projected meters” is NOT for the full 31 day challenge...but just for the remainder of the challenge. The total for the challenge would be the sum of both columns. The other assumption in the calculation is that you have not yet rowed today...thus you really do have 18 exercise days left (and not only 17).

—Marc

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jackarabit
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by jackarabit » January 14th, 2021, 12:52 pm

skkipper wrote:
January 13th, 2021, 3:59 pm
JonT wrote:
January 6th, 2021, 3:41 pm
The full list of teams can be found here
Our very latest scores and data can be found here
Hi Jon, can you explain how you are calculating projected meters? We are 13 days in and have less than 19 days left, so I would expect projected meters to be more than twice the meters rowed but it is not. I get close to the number left if I reverse the days in and the days left, but not exact.
I would have guessed algorithmia caused by a brain fart problem? Or too much free spirits. I am a simple soul who assumes challenge projected meters to be projected total meters. I can do it myself as average daily dose x (31- regular rest days) or weekly mileage x 4 without removing my shoes :lol:. Illness, injury and death make the projection approach or reach zero.

I appreciate Marc’s conjecture. We should all attempt to sound the depths of minds possibly sounder and certainly more complex than our own.
Last edited by jackarabit on January 14th, 2021, 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

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skkipper
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by skkipper » January 14th, 2021, 1:02 pm

Marcvo17 wrote:
January 14th, 2021, 11:37 am
I think the math works...at least for my numbers.

Today is the 14th....so the model assumes we have completed 13 days with 18 days yet to go...for total of 31 days.

To-date I have 147,264 meters...over 13 days that is 11,238 per day (147,264/13). So with 18 days to go...assuming I continue to average 11,238 per day...that works out to 203,904 over the remaining 18 days (11,238 x 18)...which is what is the model is showing for my projected meters.

Where you might get confused...as I initially did...the “projected meters” is NOT for the full 31 day challenge...but just for the remainder of the challenge. The total for the challenge would be the sum of both columns. The other assumption in the calculation is that you have not yet rowed today...thus you really do have 18 exercise days left (and not only 17).

—Marc
Ahh yes, you are right. I assumed it was total projected meters and not additional projected meters.
28 FHWT, 5'8"
Personal Bests
1km - 4:02.2 (2:01.1/500m) | 2km - 8:11.5 (2:02.8/500m)
5km - 21:37.9 (2:09.7/500m) | 6km - 25:59.3 (2:09.9/500m)
4min - 1003m (1:59.6/500m) | 30min - 6771m (2:12.9/500m)
{ working on all the rest }

Slothful1
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by Slothful1 » January 15th, 2021, 2:31 am

I had also assumed it was the forecast end total, and hadn't noticed the issue until Sheena pointed it out. I was wondering if it had something to do with using the last x days as a moving average for the future estimate, but the solution is simpler although less intuitive.

I was wondering about popping Jon a message about this, but any projection method is going to be flawed, so maybe better to leave it as it is. A number of people will be more erratic with their contributions, so using cumulative averages or shorter-term moving averages could still be wildly off.

Either way, well done to the big accumulators moving up the table, and keeping me fighting for a spot in the top 10! And also for the whole team for keeping us well ahead of last year's finishing position so far.

Dave

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jackarabit
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by jackarabit » January 15th, 2021, 2:04 pm

JonT himself has characterized certain of the FSR challenge metrics as “. . . of dubious value” on this forum. (search posts by _____)

I doubt if he will evidence surprise at our confusion.

If you or yours are not familiar with the FSR mentosphere but desire to know more, become a member of their forum. I am. Several useful performance metrics formulae and sprdshts on tap there—including the stats line generator used by yt. (See below) :D
There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

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JonT
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Re: Forum Flyers

Post by JonT » January 17th, 2021, 3:18 am

skkipper wrote:
January 13th, 2021, 3:59 pm

Hi Jon, can you explain how you are calculating projected meters? We are 13 days in and have less than 19 days left, so I would expect projected meters to be more than twice the meters rowed but it is not. I get close to the number left if I reverse the days in and the days left, but not exact.
Apologies all, I have been away from the forums for a few days and missed this. Luckily, one of the FreeSpirits pointed out the error of my ways. This was a silly mistake on my part. Marc was completely correct below, except it was a mistake not an intention. The page was showing “projected meters from today to the end of the challenge” rather than “projected meters for the challenge based on your daily average so far”. :oops:

This is now fixed.....I hope!

All the best for the rest of the challenge. Life is getting in the way of rowing at the moment so I’m not piling in as many meters as I would like. I’m enjoying the Zoom Ergos sessions though, which helps.

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