Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

General discussion on Training. How to get better on your erg, how to use your erg to get better at another sport, or anything else about improving your abilities.
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jackarabit
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by jackarabit » February 3rd, 2018, 4:59 pm

So Mike C and Rob W both flat paced but many, including “observed” Olympians,” do what? Fly & Die or Fly & Survive? For some, the front load is apparently OK with mind if not with body.
There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by JerekKruger » February 3rd, 2018, 7:39 pm

jackarabit wrote:So Mike C and Rob W both flat paced but many, including “observed” Olympians,” do what? Fly & Die or Fly & Survive? For some, the front load is apparently OK with mind if not with body.
How many observed Olympians were doing that on the erg though?

Here's Xeno's own strategy for a 2k on the erg (taken from here):
Xeno wrote:On the ergo you have immediate feedback what your pace is. This is not the case in racing on the water. On the water it was by feel and race experience. On the ergo you aware of every split time and second you pull.

So this is how I personally row a 2K.

First I determine what I am capable of for 2k, by rowing a few race pace 1000 and 500m, and past ability and my current endurance ability for steady state.

In 2004 I pushed 5:53
In 2005 6:02 ( I believe)

For the sake of simplicity I will show the race plan for a 6:00 2K

First eighteen strokes bring the average per 500 meters down to 1:27ish without overdoing it and using adrenaline. Be very carful not to be blinded by adrenaline, if you do that mistake you explode somwhere between 1200m and 800 meters to go.

After the first 18 strokes find your race pace, which DOES not have to be 1:30, you have a head start because of the start. So I would push 130-131 occasionaly seeing 1:32. I am carfully monitoring the total average split per 500. So slowly the "start-lead" fizzels down to a total average of 1:30. This occured to me at 900 meters to go. So now it is down to buisness. I couldn't immediately adjust to maintaining 1:30 constant overall average so I lost in overall average 0.4 seconds bringing it to 1:30.4. The further you go into the piece the less the total average per 500 meters fluctuates! Once I find the pace at exactly and consistantly 1:30 I am at roughly 650 meters to go. Cool I see the end of the tunnel, yeah! I also do not feel totally tired either because I chose the right pace and only had to row the 1:30 for roughly 500 meters. So by the time I hit 350 meters to go I sprint because I know it is roughly thirty stroke. That is psycho babble of coursem, because it is going to be more like 38 strokes, but who cares about an extra 8 strokes when you only have 50 meters left. Believe me, when the sprint is set up right, for the remaining 350 meters, YOU CAN DROP YOUR OVERALL AVERGE by 0.5 seconds or even 0.8.
I hope this helps.
I realize that this is different from negative splitting. I am NOT a negative splitter.
Assuming he rowed his start at 36 strokes per minute that means he rowed at 1:27 for about 30s before settling in to 1:31ish pace until around 1100m, This makes his first two splits

1:29.7
1:31.0

He then describes hitting an average pace of 1:30 at around 650m to go, so his third split will be a little below 1:30 and, with the final sprint, his last split will be a little faster than that too. Compared to his Atlanta final splits the difference in splits is tiny.

So I'd suggest that erging is, in this regard, quite different to on the water rowing.
Last edited by JerekKruger on February 3rd, 2018, 7:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jackarabit
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by jackarabit » February 3rd, 2018, 7:47 pm

Good point!
There are two types of people in this world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by jamesg » February 4th, 2018, 3:00 am

I'd like to thank MC for his post and kind words. I'm sorry if I distracted him from the OP's theme.

This thread was about Pace, not Pacing. The OP applied a 6s rule to lots of work from 500 to M distances and averaged the results. I think this procedure is no good at all: it showed widely differing times, 6:40 to 7:10, which in Watt terms is about 20% spread. He needed a far more accurate procedure for Pace definition, for use a week before the race.

Even a single 500 would have less error, maybe 5%, perhaps adjusting the race power discount for known endurance level (as can clearly be seen comparing the 500 and a recent 5k result).

A slowish pacing scheme like the FP would also help accomodate this error level, while still leaving some margin in the last 500.
So I'd suggest that erging is, in this regard, quite different to on the water rowing.
Indeed; we can see the Watt readout all the time.
Afloat I could only see the other crew, and not even that in a Head of the River race.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by gooseflight » February 4th, 2018, 5:15 am

JerekKruger wrote:So I'd suggest that erging is, in this regard, quite different to on the water rowing.
It is. And there aren't many Xenos.

The OP is "hoping" for sub 7. It's fair to say I think that this implies a measure of uncertainty.

So there are four approaches: a) negative split; b) flat pacing, c) front load; or d) fly and die. We can rule out the last.

Which approach offers the best change of favourable outcome? In my opinion, not the first. It requires the most confidence in ability.

The second is a good option except that it mandates a strong finish and a strong will.

The third is also a good option. Brisk start, 1:43.5/1:44 first 500 say. Flat pacing, 1:45/1:46, through the middle. Clock always below goal pace. Flat last 500m or wind up from 300 out. Job done.

As Nav says, the plan's the thing.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by JerekKruger » February 4th, 2018, 6:06 am

Lance actually stated that he's not going to go for sub-7 unless he happens to have a very strong sprint in him at the end. In fact I suspect, quite rightly, that he's given up following this discussion by now.

As for the best strategy. If Lance is right on the border of being able to row sub-7 I don't see how using a strategy that requires a higher average power will increase the chances of success. He's either got the capability of pulling a fair bit more than 302W for seven minutes - in which case flat pacing shouldn't be too hard - or he's only just capable of it, in which case asking him to pull a higher average is daft.

Oh and yes, the aren't many Xenos. I wasn't the one who originally brought him up as an example to be copied, but once he was I felt it with pointing out that he doesn't pace ergs like he does Olympic finals.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by hjs » February 4th, 2018, 6:10 am

JerekKruger wrote:Lance actually stated that he's not going to go for sub-7 unless he happens to have a very strong sprint in him at the end. In fact I suspect, quite rightly, that he's given up following this discussion by now.

As for the best strategy. If Lance is right on the border of being able to row sub-7 I don't see how using a strategy that requires a higher average power will increase the chances of success. He's either got the capability of pulling a fair bit more than 302W for seven minutes - in which case flat pacing shouldn't be too hard - or he's only just capable of it, in which case asking him to pull a higher average is daft.

Oh and yes, the aren't many Xenos. I wasn't the one who originally brought him up as an example to be copied, but once he was I felt it with pointing out that he doesn't pace ergs like he does Olympic finals.
For the great rower Xeno was and given his build, his 2k s are very modest, does not look like he ever did those very seriously, given that I would not look to much into his pacing on the erg.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by gooseflight » February 4th, 2018, 6:15 am

JerekKruger wrote:If Lance is right on the border of being able to row sub-7 I don't see how using a strategy that requires a higher average power will increase the chances of success.
Because it's not just about the numbers. Psychology plays a part too. You also have to consider where the energy comes from at different parts of the race and where best to use it. If the OP is just about capable of ~300W for 7 minutes there are several approaches. And FWIW, I think it's been an interesting discussion.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by JerekKruger » February 4th, 2018, 7:51 am

gooseflight wrote:Because it's not just about the numbers. Psychology plays a part too. You also have to consider where the energy comes from at different parts of the race and where best to use it. If the OP is just about capable of ~300W for 7 minutes there are several approaches.
Sure, I just don't think the pacing suggested by the French protocol is a good one. At least for me slowing from a very fast split to a slower split then upping back to a fast split causes my body to rebel. I have no science to back this up, but I always imagine it switches into a slower "gear", a sort of partial recovery mode, and when I try to make it go fast again it feels harder than if I simply went fast throughout. This isn't such an issue on longer pieces where I can absorb the transition period without to much effect on my speed (in fact when I used to cycle I got very good at managing this transition, which came when downhills changed to climbs) but on a 2k it's likely to result in me either not hitting the faster pace or HDing.
And FWIW, I think it's been an interesting discussion.
Agreed.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by NavigationHazard » February 4th, 2018, 8:59 am

Among the many other things to consider: the closer any given race plan matches the training you've put in beforehand, the better the results are likely to be.

With regard to switching paces and ratings in the middle of a race: OTW rowers do it all the time, particularly in multiple-rower boats, since you have to react to whatever it is your competition is doing. If you're used to it, or at least inured to it, it's much less disruptive than if you're not. That doesn't necessarily recommend it OTE (on the erg), to be sure, where most people most of the time are racing themselves more than they are competing against others for a podium place. Moreover, from a purely mechanical point of view, wattage requirements are lowest when every stroke is the same as the target pace.* Still, if you train in such a way as to reflect some particular pacing strategy, and/or your pacing strategy reflects your training, you're almost certainly going to find it easier to handle than otherwise.

* By way of exaggerated example, 1:45 pace is 302w. Rowing one stroke at 1:40 pace and the next at 1:50 pace is also 1:45 pace, on average. However the wattage requirement becomes (350w + 263w)/2 = 306.5w. This is because of the cubic relationship involved in the monitor's calculation of watts/pace. In the second case, the energy requirement is actually the equivalent of 1:44.5 pace if you'd evened out the grunt. This sort of thing can add up over the course of a race.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by lancecampeau » February 4th, 2018, 4:21 pm

Gammmmo wrote:Looking at that I'd say a small PB is on the cards
You called it and that is exactly what happen... cut 0.2 off my 2K PB... its now 7:04.6
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by Mike Caviston » February 4th, 2018, 10:41 pm

“If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn’t value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?”
― Sam Harris

"The work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results."
― Michael Crichton

“So my antagonist said, "Is it impossible that there are flying saucers? Can you prove that it's impossible?" "No", I said, "I can't prove it's impossible. It's just very unlikely". At that he said, "You are very unscientific. If you can't prove it impossible then how can you say that it's unlikely?" But that is the way that is scientific. It is scientific only to say what is more likely and what less likely, and not to be proving all the time the possible and impossible.”
― Richard Feynman

I try to use the most scientific approach possible. Not anecdotes, opinions, or cherry-picked examples. My claim is that a slight negative split provides the best chance of winning. Data from thousands of races shows this to be true, always has been true, and continues to be true with each new season of racing. The results are EXACTLY the same for on the water and indoor races. The winning percentage is highest for athletes or crews that use a slight negative split, and as splits become more positive, the winning percentage drops. In a race where no one negative splits, the athlete with the smallest positive split tends to be more successful - of which the '96 M1x is an example.

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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by NavigationHazard » February 5th, 2018, 4:27 am

Here are splits (and split ratings) for winners of the 49 2k erg races at the 2017 British Rowing Championships in December:

E0 Open Men 2000m 1 Adam Neill GB Rowing Team 1:27.9 (34) 1:28.7 (33) 1:28.1 (33) 1:23.4 (40) 5:48.2
E1 Open LWT Men 2000m 1 Jamie Copus GB Rowing Team 1:34.9 (32) 1:34.5 (31) 1:34.6 (33) 1:32.0 (42) 6:15.9
E2 Open Women 2000m 1 Kaila Engelsman Mortlake Anglian & Alpha Boat Club 1:44.5 (28) 1:45.4 (28) 1:45.5 (30) 1:46.2 (31) 7:01.6
E3 Open LWT Women 2000m 1 Meghann Jackson Fulham Reach Boat Club 1:48.3 (30) 1:48.8 (30) 1:50.2 (29) 1:49.1 (30) 7:16.4
E4 Under 23 Men 2000m 1 Luke Gwenter Bath University 1:33.0 (35) 1:32.3 (34) 1:33.1 (34) 1:33.0 (34) 6:11.4
E5 Under 23 Women 2000m 1 Imogen Magner Isle Of Ely Rowing Club 1:39.4 (32) 1:44.0 (29) 1:46.1 (29) 1:46.4 (30) 6:56.0
E7 Under 23 LWT Women 2000m 1 Bryony Lawrence Hartpury University Centre 1:52.1 (29) 1:51.5 (30) 1:49.3 (30) 1:50.3 (34) 7:23.3
E8 Masters 30-39 Men 2000m 1 Mark Roberts Kingston Rowing Club 1:31.4 (32) 1:31.9 (31) 1:32.1 (31) 1:29.7 (37) 6:05.1
E9 Masters 30-39 Women 2000m 1 Anna Muehle Crossfit Rosenheim 1:42.4 (30) 1:45.8 (31) 1:46.2 (30) 1:42.9 (35) 6:57.3
E10 Masters 30-39 LWT Men 2000m 1 Tomaso Muzzu Sons Of The Thames Rowing Club 1:37.0 (35) 1:38.6 (33) 1:40.1 (34) 1:36.4 (38) 6:32.1

E11 Masters 30-39 LWT Women 2000m 1 Sarah Rogerson Fitness Matters Indoor Rowing Team 1:50.9 (32) 1:52.6 (31) 1:54.2 (33) 1:59.2 (36) 7:36.9
E12 Masters 40-49 Men 2000m 1 Graham Benton MAD Team Indoor Rowing Club 1:28.4 (35) 1:29.9 (32) 1:30.1 (31) 1:27.3 (33) 5:55.7
E13 Masters 40-49 Women 2000m 1 Georgia Peramatzi Jo Dia Athens 1:39.3 (32) 1:46.3 (28) 1:47.7 (29) 1:50.3 (30) 7:03.5
E14 Masters 40-49 LWT Men 2000m 1 Mark Mitchell MAD Team Indoor Rowing Club 1:36.5 (37) 1:36.4 (35) 1:36.2 (35) 1:34.6 (37) 6:23.7
E15 Masters 40-49 LWT Women 2000m 1 Sarah Gibbs Esprit Indoor Rowing team 1:53.2 (34) 1:53.3 (32) 1:52.9 (33) 1:50.9 (34) 7:30.2
E16 Masters 50-54 Men 2000m 1 David Dix Rob Roy Boat Club 1:33.3 (30) 1:35.0 (29) 1:34.5 (30) 1:34.5 (33) 6:17.3
E17 Masters 50-54 Women 2000m 1 Ann Atkins Seal PT 1:53.8 (31) 1:56.4 (30) 1:56.4 (29) 1:51.8 (33) 7:38.4
E18 Masters 50-54 LWT Men 2000m 1 Stephen Pearson Wallingford 1:39.9 (34) 1:40.3 (32) 1:41.1 (31) 1:39.8 (35) 6:41.1
E19 Masters 50-54 LWT Women 2000m 1 Clare Rainbow Sub 7 Indoor Rowing Club 1:56.5 (35) 2:01.5 (32) 2:02.7 (32) 1:56.3 (34) 7:57.0
E20 Masters 55-59 Men 2000m 1 Richard Cheeseman Sub 7 Indoor Rowing Club 1:38.0 (32) 1:38.9 (32) 1:39.0 (32) 1:36.5 (32) 6:32.4

E21 Masters 55-59 Women 2000m 1 Judith Burne Upper Thames Rowing Club 1:56.8 (28) 1:58.0 (26) 1:59.1 (26) 1:57.0 (28) 7:50.9
E22 Masters 55-59 LWT Men 2000m 1 Pentti Soini Quiske 1:44.5 (34) 1:44.0 (34) 1:43.8 (36) 1:42.4 (38) 6:54.7
E23 Masters 55-59 LWT Women 2000m 1 Carol Woodward Sub 7 Indoor Rowing Club 1:58.7 (28) 1:57.8 (29) 1:58.0 (29) 1:57.9 (33) 7:52.4
E24 Masters 60-64 Men 2000m 1 Jonathan Bone Team Oarsome 1:39.4 (25) 1:42.4 (23) 1:42.2 (23) 1:39.6 (28) 6:43.6
E25 Masters 60-64 Women 2000m 1 Sarah Springman Leander 1:53.6 (30) 1:54.3 (29) 1:53.7 (30) 1:52.1 (31) 7:33.7
E26 Masters 60-64 LWT Men 2000m 1 Emanuele Romoli Prosport Trento Italy 1:42.6 (29) 1:45.1 (28) 1:45.5 (28) 1:43.5 (30) 6:56.6
E27 Masters 60-64 LWT Women 2000m 1 Gabriella Giovanazzi Prosport Trento Italy 2:05.6 (28) 2:05.4 (27) 2:05.8 (27) 2:06.7 (28) 8:23.5
E28 Masters 65-69 Men 2000m 1 John Mottram Xpress 1:47.7 (35) 1:49.0 (35) 1:46.5 (37) 1:44.9 (38) 7:08.2
E29 Masters 65-69 Women 2000m 1 Marjorie Roome Teign Scullers Rowing Club 2:01.3 (24) 2:01.8 (25) 2:02.2 (26) 1:58.4 (28) 8:03.5
E30 Masters 65-69 LWT Men 2000m 1 Eric Winterbottom 1:47.9 (34) 1:48.4 (33) 1:48.3 (34) 1:49.3 (34) 7:13.9

E32 Masters 70-74 Men 2000m 1 Roger Stainforth Durham Amateur Rowing Club 1:49.0 (32) 1:49.5 (30) 1:50.3 (29) 1:49.8 (31) 7:18.7
E34 Masters 70-74 LWT Men 2000m 1 Chris Proud 2:01.4 (24) 2:02.3 (25) 2:01.3 (25) 1:57.8 (27) 8:02.9
E36 Masters 75-79 Men 2000m 1 Kenneth Boyle CHAoS Rowing Club 2:03.6 (26) 2:03.8 (27) 2:02.8 (27) 2:00.3 (27) 8:10.5
E37 Masters 75-79 Women 2000m 1 Linda Colognese Gover Gym 2:24.6 (25) 2:26.0 (26) 2:27.2 (26) 2:23.1 (28) 9:40.9
E38 Masters 75-79 LWT Men 2000m 1 Tony Winfield PT Gym 1:56.6 (31) 1:56.6 (30) 1:54.5 (30) 1:51.0 (31) 7:38.6
E40 Masters 80-84 Men 2000m 1 Mike Hurley Willpower Fitness 1:55.8 (29) 1:55.1 (28) 1:54.6 (31) 1:53.6 (35) 7:39.0

E42 Masters 80-84 LWT Men 2000m 1 Grahame Cooper Sparkhill Harriers 2:13.1 (26) 2:14.6 (25) 2:15.4 (25) 2:16.0 (26) 8:59.2
E46 Masters 85-89 LWT Men 2000m 1 Bernard Wills Auriel Kensington Rowing Club 2:21.3 (27) 2:36.3 (26) 2:36.0 (26) 2:31.5 (27) 10:05.2
E50 Masters 90-94 LWT Men 2000m 1 Peter Taylor Nuffield Health 2:36.0 (26) 2:44.4 (25) 2:48.0 (25) 2:40.7 (24) 10:49.1

E130 Sixth Form Boys 2000m 1 Edward Digby Pangbourne College Boat Club 1:31.2 (31) 1:34.7 (27) 1:35.0 (27) 1:32.6 (30) 6:13.5
E131 Sixth Form Girls 2000m 1 Georgia Martin Gloucester Hartpury 1:46.5 (29) 1:46.2 (28) 1:44.9 (29) 1:43.9 (32) 7:01.4
E132 (PR1) Para Men 2000m 1 Scott Jones Hartpury University Centre 1:58.4 (31) 1:59.6 (30) 1:59.9 (31) 1:59.6 (33) 7:57.4
E134 (PR2) Para Men 2000m 1 Mark Allen 2:30.2 (38) 2:38.3 (34) 2:44.5 (35) 2:22.5 (60) 10:15.6
E135 (PR2) Para Women 2000m 1 Hilary Birkinshaw Guidford Rowing Club 2:32.0 (31) 2:40.9 (26) 2:41.7 (25) 2:41.7 (25) 10:36.3
E136 (PR3-PD) Para Men 2000m 1 Sean Gaffney Royal Navy NavyFit 1:37.5 (34) 1:41.1 (30) 1:40.8 (32) 1:34.9 (34) 6:34.3
E137 (PR3-PD) Para Women 2000m 1 Ella Holloway Marlow 1:57.7 (30) 2:03.7 (27) 2:06.8 (27) 2:05.3 (31) 8:13.4
E140 (AR2) Adaptive Men 2000m 1 Martin Tye Guildford Rowing Club 1:52.5 (35) 2:04.6 (33) 2:05.5 (33) 1:56.2 (36) 7:58.8

E142 (AR3-PD) Adaptive Men 2000m 1 Calum Titmus Peterborough City Rowing Club 1:42.4 (45) 1:53.0 (38) 1:58.2 (33) 1:54.0 (35) 7:27.6

E164 DeClassified 2000m 1 Adrian Walker Royal Navy Drill Power 1:47.6 (32) 1:47.1 (31) 1:47.7 (32) 1:46.2 (34) 7:08.6

I have bold-faced the four winners who followed a strict definition of negative-splitting, i.e. successive splits are faster than their predecessor(s).
In addition, the winner of race E38 rowed his first two 500s at identical pace and then negative-splitted the last two. There are a few others who were off by a tenth of a second or so, e.g. the winners of races E1 and E15.

Still, the overwhelming majority of the winners (full disclosure, myself included) did something other than a strict definition of negative splitting.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by kerosene » February 5th, 2018, 7:27 am

I think it is common to start with a little bit of extra oomph. I have not found science to prove that the short term energy reserves would be best used by fast start - but many seem to do this. Ie. first split is relatively fast because of faster 10-20 strokes right at the start.
Equally last split being the fastest is quite natural if there is a sprint finish. There are a few surprising (to me) efforts where the last split is the slowest. However it is hard to know if the winner had enough of a lead that they could “coast” to finish or if they were an all out effort all the way to finish line.

Regardless, in general the differences between split times are typically very small compared to the French protocol.
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PBs: 500m_1:30.8 | 1K_3:19.2 |2K_6:58.9 |5K_19:22.7 | 10K_39:29.4 | 30min_7,542m

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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by Xenormuller » March 8th, 2018, 4:06 pm

Hello Everyone!
It has been years since I have posted here.
I looked through my website analytics and saw that some visited my site from here, which is awesome. I searched the message board for my name and found posts about water racing vs. erg race.
When I raced on the water, I picked my strategie by combining how I raced against myself and how the field raced.
I knew every single scullers’ race pattern in 96. Racing on the water also requires decision making by instinct.
The coaches I had were superb mental tacticians. I can’t thank them enough for preparing me mentally and physically.
A couple years back, one of you told me that my last 500m was still some sort of a record, which certainly was the product of conservative pacing at the time. Looking back at the race, the stress froze me a bit in the first 1000 meters.
If anyone of you are interested about my coaching family tree search it on my website. Creating the family tree was done thanks to a friend of mine.
And after reading this, you might wonder, whether I am still going all out on the erg, I am not. Been there done that, but also more importantly, going long and steady will be better for me in the long run, shout out for all the AFIB peeps who erg.
I will stop now, because otherwise I might go into self-promotion mode and I know how much you all love that.

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