P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

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MudSweatAndYears
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P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by MudSweatAndYears » August 25th, 2022, 6:41 am

Who is the all-time best masters indoor rower? This question inevitably creates a lot of discussion on how to compare athletes who are at different stages of age decline. Personally, I think any such ranking should be based on a performance metric that is simple and transparant in its use and that results in a wide variety of ages when used to construct leaderboards. Recently I stumbled upon a very simple metric that I would like to share here.

This so-called P/AR metric (in Watts/year) is formed by the ratio of power (in Watts) over agereserve (in years). Here, agereserve is the maximum number of years ahead of you: 120 minus your age. A short note on the background of this P/AR metric can be found at: https://erg-all-rounders.blogspot.com/2 ... field.html.

I copy here the RowErg 2k all-time leaderboard based on P/AR scores (rightmost column).

Image

Who of you is shown in this overview? ;)
I run in the mud, I sweat on the erg, and I happily battle the years...
M 63, 1.80m/5'11", 75kg/165lb. Erging since Sept 2019.
https://erg-all-rounders.blogspot.com/p ... 22-23.html

Tsnor
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Tsnor » August 25th, 2022, 4:41 pm

Some on the water rowing in the US has an age handicap system for masters rowing. Basically the handicap per 1K rowed is (age-27) squared times a boat-type specific constant. Example different constant for a single scull than an 8. Roughly a 65 year old gets 30 seconds per 1K rowed handicap vs a 27 year old, so a 27 year old rowing a 6:00 2K at a 1:30 split would tie a 65 year old rowing a 7:00 2K at a 1:45 split.

The handicaps are rarely applied over a large age difference. If a single heat had a 50 year old average boat and a 60 year old average boat there would be a small handicap applied. 27 year olds would be in a different heat.

Here are details. https://analytics.rowsandall.com/2018/0 ... ng-system/

Here is the conclusion of the article above: "This analysis has provided a comparison of concept2 ranking data to the US Rowing age handicapping system. It has shown that the handicapping curves are not well correlated the actual decline in performance as shown in the C2 data. The US Rowing handicaps appear to be significantly skewed to the advantage of older and lighter rowers."

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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by MudSweatAndYears » August 28th, 2022, 6:59 pm

”The US Rowing handicaps appear to be significantly skewed to the advantage of older and lighter rowers."
On-the-water rowing is much more complex to analyse. It is plagued with many variables (wind speed, waves, water currents, etc) that influence boat speed but that are not captured in results data bases.

C2 data, on the other hand, is abundant and much cleaner. My key point is that when considering wattages rather than speeds or splits, indoor rowing age decline becomes (in good approximation) linear and therefore much simpler to account for.
I run in the mud, I sweat on the erg, and I happily battle the years...
M 63, 1.80m/5'11", 75kg/165lb. Erging since Sept 2019.
https://erg-all-rounders.blogspot.com/p ... 22-23.html

Tsnor
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Tsnor » August 29th, 2022, 1:55 pm

MudSweatAndYears wrote:
August 28th, 2022, 6:59 pm
”The US Rowing handicaps appear to be significantly skewed to the advantage of older and lighter rowers."
On-the-water rowing is much more complex to analyse. It is plagued with many variables (wind speed, waves, water currents, etc) that influence boat speed but that are not captured in results data bases.

C2 data, on the other hand, is abundant and much cleaner. My key point is that when considering wattages rather than speeds or splits, indoor rowing age decline becomes (in good approximation) linear and therefore much simpler to account for.
If you care, double check the article I linked. It is an analysis of the C2 ranking database. That said, you understood my point that others agree with age adjusted results and have their own formulas, and I think I followed your points so we are in sync.

"The handicap pace curve is then plotted over the actual 1km pace at the same percentile ranking for each age in the concept2 data." H is the USRowing projected results. Ignore it. N is plotted data from the ranking database.
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Cyclingman1
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Cyclingman1 » August 31st, 2022, 6:38 pm

I just came across this topic. Never heard of Power to 120 - age ratio to evaluate rowing performances. But in looking at the results, it does appear that rowers one has seen on top of the standings over the years are well represented on the list. And, perhaps amazingly, I find myself at #18 with a P/AR of 6.60 among all men and women of all ages. I say amazing because for the better part of the last four years I've been recovering from several serious injuries including disc surgery, hip replacement, double hernia, skin cancer surgery, etc. To be quite honest, I'm not really all that happy with my comeback. I expect better. Who knows, maybe I can get there some day.
JimG, Gainesville, Ga, 78, 76", 205lb. PBs:
66-69: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:30.8 3:14.1 6:40.7 17:34.0 21:18.1 36:21.7 30;60;HM: 8337 16237 1:20:25
70-78: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:32.7 3:19.5 6:58.1 17:55.3 21:32.6 36:41.9 30;60;HM: 8214 15353 1:23:02.5

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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by MudSweatAndYears » September 1st, 2022, 10:00 am

Cyclingman1 wrote:
August 31st, 2022, 6:38 pm
[..] And, perhaps amazingly, I find myself at #18 with a P/AR of 6.60 among all men and women of all ages. I say amazing because for the better part of the last four years I've been recovering from several serious injuries including disc surgery, hip replacement, double hernia, skin cancer surgery, etc. To be quite honest, I'm not really all that happy with my comeback. I expect better. Who knows, maybe I can get there some day.
At equal wattage, your drop in age reserve (from 50 to 45, or minus 10% over the last five years) gives you a boost of 10% in your P/AR score (which at 6.60 Watts/yr is now apparently higher than ever before). I'd guess any medical professional would classify your recovery as examplary. But... those with hunger will thrive best. On to a top-10 spot!
I run in the mud, I sweat on the erg, and I happily battle the years...
M 63, 1.80m/5'11", 75kg/165lb. Erging since Sept 2019.
https://erg-all-rounders.blogspot.com/p ... 22-23.html

Cyclingman1
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Cyclingman1 » September 1st, 2022, 11:15 am

MudSweatAndYears wrote:
September 1st, 2022, 10:00 am
At equal wattage, your drop in age reserve (from 50 to 45, or minus 10% over the last five years) gives you a boost of 10% in your P/AR score (which at 6.60 Watts/yr is now apparently higher than ever before).
Not exactly sure what you are telling me. My time and age in 2022 stand alone. In 2012 when I first took up erging I had a 2K result of 6:40.7, Wattage 348, and at age 66 a P/AR score of 6.44. I believe that would be my second best standing.
JimG, Gainesville, Ga, 78, 76", 205lb. PBs:
66-69: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:30.8 3:14.1 6:40.7 17:34.0 21:18.1 36:21.7 30;60;HM: 8337 16237 1:20:25
70-78: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:32.7 3:19.5 6:58.1 17:55.3 21:32.6 36:41.9 30;60;HM: 8214 15353 1:23:02.5

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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by MudSweatAndYears » September 1st, 2022, 11:48 am

You are right. I looked in more detail at your ranked 2k results:

Name . Season . . Age . . . . Time . Wattage . P/AR
Jim G . . 2012 . . . 66 . . . 6:40.7 . . . . 348 . . 6.44
Jim G . . 2013 . . . 66 . . . 6:43.7 . . . . 340 . . 6.30
Jim G . . 2014 . . . 67 . . . 6:48.8 . . . . 328 . . 6.19
Jim G . . 2016 . . . 69 . . . 6:56.3 . . . . 310 . . 6.08
Jim G . . 2020 . . . 73 . . . 7:06.5 . . . . 289 . . 6.15
Jim G . . 2022 . . . 75 . . . 7:02.6 . . . . 297 . . 6.60

So it's not 5 years that have past (since your earlier top) but 9 years. Consequently, the drop in age reserve I was referring to is not 10% but as large as 17% (from 54 to 45).
I run in the mud, I sweat on the erg, and I happily battle the years...
M 63, 1.80m/5'11", 75kg/165lb. Erging since Sept 2019.
https://erg-all-rounders.blogspot.com/p ... 22-23.html

Cyclingman1
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Cyclingman1 » September 1st, 2022, 12:56 pm

MudSweatAndYears wrote:
September 1st, 2022, 11:48 am
I looked in more detail at your ranked 2k results:

Name . Season . . Age . . . . Time . Wattage . P/AR
Jim G . . 2012 . . . 66 . . . 6:40.7 . . . . 348 . . 6.44
Jim G . . 2013 . . . 66 . . . 6:43.7 . . . . 340 . . 6.30
Jim G . . 2014 . . . 67 . . . 6:48.8 . . . . 328 . . 6.19
Jim G . . 2016 . . . 69 . . . 6:56.3 . . . . 310 . . 6.08
Jim G . . 2020 . . . 73 . . . 7:06.5 . . . . 289 . . 6.15
Jim G . . 2022 . . . 75 . . . 7:02.6 . . . . 297 . . 6.60
Thanks so much for the info. Definitely a long drop in performance. When I start serious 2K training this winter perhaps I continue with upward trend.

I think a question does arise? How complete is the list of top 50? Could some or many been overlooked? An observation: Only one LWt in the list.
Secondly, my 7:02.6 at age 75 really did not seem like much at the time, but I suppose I need to give myself a little credit.
JimG, Gainesville, Ga, 78, 76", 205lb. PBs:
66-69: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:30.8 3:14.1 6:40.7 17:34.0 21:18.1 36:21.7 30;60;HM: 8337 16237 1:20:25
70-78: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:32.7 3:19.5 6:58.1 17:55.3 21:32.6 36:41.9 30;60;HM: 8214 15353 1:23:02.5

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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by MudSweatAndYears » September 1st, 2022, 3:30 pm

Cyclingman1 wrote:
September 1st, 2022, 12:56 pm
I think a question does arise? How complete is the list of top 50? Could some or many been overlooked? An observation: Only one LWt in the list.
Secondly, my 7:02.6 at age 75 really did not seem like much at the time, but I suppose I need to give myself a little credit.
The list should be complete, but I need to make one proviso: I generated a list of all seasonal bests and manually pruned the list to eliminate the lower scoring P/AR's for each individual. And as always, a manual process is prone to errors.

And yes, this list comprises all rowers and is therefore 'open weight'. As one could expect, very few (i.e. just one) lightweight(s) on the list. To make the list more inclusive towards lightweights one should create a similar list for just lightweights. Or to stay in line with the current methodology, one could create a list based on the metric Power per kilogram per year of age reserve. That would create a list of mostly lightweights.

And finally, of all your impressive 2k achievements I think you should be proudest of your 7:02.6 at age 75. It is not only that the P/AR scores indicate this as your top achievement, also relative peer performance indicates the same. All the athletes that ever have beaten this performance are at least three years younger than 75. The same does not hold for your 6:40.7 at age 66: in total five athletes aged 65 (just a year younger than you at the time) have beaten this 2k performance.
I run in the mud, I sweat on the erg, and I happily battle the years...
M 63, 1.80m/5'11", 75kg/165lb. Erging since Sept 2019.
https://erg-all-rounders.blogspot.com/p ... 22-23.html

Cyclingman1
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Cyclingman1 » September 1st, 2022, 5:01 pm

I'm pleased that I've been fortunate enough to have had a few decent times over the last ten yrs. Hopefully, I can keep it up.
JimG, Gainesville, Ga, 78, 76", 205lb. PBs:
66-69: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:30.8 3:14.1 6:40.7 17:34.0 21:18.1 36:21.7 30;60;HM: 8337 16237 1:20:25
70-78: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:32.7 3:19.5 6:58.1 17:55.3 21:32.6 36:41.9 30;60;HM: 8214 15353 1:23:02.5

Tsnor
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Tsnor » September 1st, 2022, 8:43 pm

Cyclingman1 wrote:
September 1st, 2022, 12:56 pm
...
Secondly, my 7:02.6 at age 75 really did not seem like much at the time, but I suppose I need to give myself a little credit.
Clearly a mediocre effort.

It would only have won the 2022 world indoor rowing champs mens 75 heavyweight class by 27 seconds....

https://regatta.time-team.nl/wrich/2022 ... de2634.php

Nice job. Outstanding.

Cyclingman1
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Cyclingman1 » September 2nd, 2022, 5:24 pm

Not particularly familiar with world indoor rowing championships. I suppose that is a failing of mine. I'm at best semi serious about WRs. I have had very few seasons over the last eleven where I have averaged as much as 20K a week. Perhaps if I had the right situation where I could double those meters, I could do a little better and pay attention to racing regattas.

Edit: I just saw that the indoor championships will be Toronto in Feb 2023. That is only a one day drive for me. I could see myself there. Just board my five Goldendoodles and load up. It's all based on getting myself in decent shape.
JimG, Gainesville, Ga, 78, 76", 205lb. PBs:
66-69: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:30.8 3:14.1 6:40.7 17:34.0 21:18.1 36:21.7 30;60;HM: 8337 16237 1:20:25
70-78: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:32.7 3:19.5 6:58.1 17:55.3 21:32.6 36:41.9 30;60;HM: 8214 15353 1:23:02.5

Tsnor
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Tsnor » September 2nd, 2022, 6:31 pm

Cyclingman1 wrote:
September 2nd, 2022, 5:24 pm
..
Edit: I just saw that the indoor championships will be Toronto in Feb 2023. That is only a one day drive for me. I could see myself there. Just board my five Goldendoodles and load up. It's all based on getting myself in decent shape.
JimG, Gainesville, Ga, --> Toronto in 1 day. You drive like you row.

(Toronto also solves your "how do i grab the WR title during Covid..." problems.)

Cyclingman1
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Re: P/AR all-time 2k leaderboard

Post by Cyclingman1 » September 3rd, 2022, 5:15 pm

Another question comes to mind. Can any one person appear multiple times in the list? I presume that each entry is that person's best P/AR performance. I could see someone having many high number performances. Just wondering?

A corollary to my question is how difficult or usual for people to maintain performance levels across years. There are few names in the list that I expected to be even better but it did not happen as far as I know.
JimG, Gainesville, Ga, 78, 76", 205lb. PBs:
66-69: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:30.8 3:14.1 6:40.7 17:34.0 21:18.1 36:21.7 30;60;HM: 8337 16237 1:20:25
70-78: .5,1,2,5,6,10K: 1:32.7 3:19.5 6:58.1 17:55.3 21:32.6 36:41.9 30;60;HM: 8214 15353 1:23:02.5

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