Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

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lancecampeau
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Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by lancecampeau » January 30th, 2018, 2:09 pm

Hello Gang:

Going to a race on Sunday and I've been doing some number crunching to really nail down my target pace for this 2K event. I though I'd share some findings/thoughts on this little experiment.

My PB's for all the ranked distances are listed below and were all recorded over the last 12 months (most were recorded in the summertime). My strongest performances were the 1K, 6K and HM. The 10K, 60min and FM are the weakest. So, using the Paul's Law calculator (http://www.machars.net/) I plugged in all of my seasonal best numbers and compiled the results to get an averaged prediction of my best 2K time based on all of my ranked pieces for the 2017/2018 season.

Paul's Law - 2K predictions
500m - 6:40 / 400 sec
1000m - 6:50 / 410 sec
2000m - 7:04.8 / 424.8 sec
5000 - 7:03.5 / 4:23.5 sec
6000 - 7:00.6 / 420.6 sec
30min - 7:06.6 / 426.6 sec
10000m - 7:09.3 / 429.3 sec
60min - 7:08.4 / 428.4 sec
HM - 6:58.4 / 418.4 sec
FM - 7:22.8 / 442.8 sec

4224.4 total seconds / 10 = 422.4 sec is the target pace

So, according to this, I should be aiming for a race pace of 7:02.4 / 1:45.6 / 297 watts. That seems obtainable.

I was hoping for a sub 7 performance at this event, but after crunching these numbers, I'm starting to rethink my race strategy. Avoiding a fly-n-die situation is now priority #1 and if a sub 7 or PB can happen in the last 250m, I'll go for it at that time, but not earlier in the race.
Male, 45, 6ft / 241 lbs, 183cm / 109 kg / Started erging in Jan 2017
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Gammmmo
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by Gammmmo » January 30th, 2018, 2:50 pm

Looking at that I'd say a small PB is on the cards assuming your those times are representative of your current ability. The HM looks like an abberation for whatever reason as u appear to be "strength" rather than aerobically biased. If I was in your shoes I do a 1.5K TT at home and use that as a guide.
Last edited by Gammmmo on January 30th, 2018, 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Paul, 47M, 5'11" 77kg (all PBs done as a LWT tho'), ex bike time trialler.
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Targets: 1:27(500m), 3:11(1K), 180kg deadlift

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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by JerekKruger » January 30th, 2018, 2:50 pm

I think aiming a little above 7 minutes (perhaps try to hold 1:46 average) for at least the first 1000m isn't a bad idea. See how you feel going past the halfway mark. If you're feeling okay then consider upping the pace a little, if not then hold off. Basically your strategy seems good.

I should add that I think you probably are capable of going sub 7 based on those PBs. In particular you definitely don't lack the power based on your 500m and 1000m, and you don't lack the aerobic capacity based on your HM. It's probably a case of having a good day, whether that's mentally or physically.
Tom | 33 | 6'6" | 93kg

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OtwSL
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by OtwSL » January 30th, 2018, 3:31 pm

To be honest I know that you really want to dial on your time for a 2k but the worst thing you can do is overthink it. Stick to your plan and do what feels good on the day. It will be what it will be and if you stress about it too much you will not get the results you want. (Trust me I've done it!) Just relax and I'm sure you'll do great!
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Targets for 2018: 100m 16.6, 2k sub 6:45, 5k sub 18:00, 10k sub 37:30, 30' 8100m, 30r20 7900m

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Gammmmo
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by Gammmmo » January 30th, 2018, 3:36 pm

OtwSL wrote:To be honest I know that you really want to dial on your time for a 2k but the worst thing you can do is overthink it. Stick to your plan and do what feels good on the day. It will be what it will be and if you stress about it too much you will not get the results you want. (Trust me I've done it!) Just relax and I'm sure you'll do great!
I can attest to this as someone currently working on their 2K...u can overthink and/or psyche yourself out. Whether it's training or an attempt....just do it.
Paul, 47M, 5'11" 77kg (all PBs done as a LWT tho'), ex bike time trialler.
1min=350m Image
Targets: 1:27(500m), 3:11(1K), 180kg deadlift

Erg on!

Dangerscouse
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by Dangerscouse » January 30th, 2018, 4:17 pm

Totally agree with Scott and Paul. Aim to match your PB pace and see where you are with 500m to go, but try and stop thinking about it.

I have looked at Paul's Law for some distances with actual times and they under estimated what I had achieved for other distances, so it's not totally infallible.
45 HWT; 6' 4"; Liverpool 1k= 3:09; 2k= 6:36; 5k= 17:27; 6k= 21:23; 10k= 36:21 30mins= 8,356m 60mins= 16,317m HM= 1:18:40; FM= 2:49:39; 50k= 3:28:18; 100k= 7:52:44; 12hrs = 153km

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lancecampeau
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by lancecampeau » January 30th, 2018, 5:14 pm

Gammmmo wrote: The HM looks like an aberration for whatever reason...
That 1:25:29.6 HM was certainly an aberration in my training over the last year. But to add some context, in the 6 days preceding that particular HM, I pulled three PB's at sprint distances (1 min, 4 min & 2K). Each spaced 2 days apart so I was keyed up heading into the HM.

This whole thread kind of sums up/confirms what I've already suspected this season... I've spent too much time on longer SS / low intensity pieces (HM or greater) and have failed to do enough increased intensity, mid distance pieces (5K to 15K). My sprints feel good and strong, I've gone 50K three times this season, etc... but I suggest the likely reason why I haven't gone sub 7 yet is a lack of intense work at those critical middle distances.

As some of you have suggested, I should aim for around a 1:46 pace... This makes sense. After the race, The 30min, 10K & 60min will be my primary focus for awhile before I attempt another 2K TT
Male, 45, 6ft / 241 lbs, 183cm / 109 kg / Started erging in Jan 2017
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Dangerscouse
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by Dangerscouse » January 30th, 2018, 5:20 pm

Yep, the longer steadier distances definitely affect your sprint performance. I'm struggling, relatively speaking, with the shorter distances.
45 HWT; 6' 4"; Liverpool 1k= 3:09; 2k= 6:36; 5k= 17:27; 6k= 21:23; 10k= 36:21 30mins= 8,356m 60mins= 16,317m HM= 1:18:40; FM= 2:49:39; 50k= 3:28:18; 100k= 7:52:44; 12hrs = 153km

"You reap what you Row"

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G-dub
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by G-dub » January 30th, 2018, 10:37 pm

Lance - FWIW: the challenge with races is that the start is not the same as in the gym or basement. And it is easy to take your adrenaline into the first 250 and put yourself in a bind. I think getting onto goal split after as few strokes as possible helps - especially us that might not have huge engines. I’ve been lucky to PB each of my races (mostly because it was the only time I was willing to do a 2K!) and each time I also shot myself in the foot by going too early and hanging on for dear life at the end. I agree with you that you want to protect a PB well into the piece and then go for more. I think last 250 might be a bit conservative though - if you feel good, you can carefully lower a little as you get into the last quarter while still protecting the sprint. Your sprint numbers are much better than mine. I bet you have sub 7 in there. Just be patient with the piece and you might get it.
Glenn Walters: 5'-8" X 192 lbs. Bday 01/09/1962
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lancecampeau
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by lancecampeau » January 30th, 2018, 11:38 pm

G-dub wrote:Lance - FWIW: the challenge with races is that the start is not the same as in the gym or basement. And it is easy to take your adrenaline into the first 250 and put yourself in a bind. I think getting onto goal split after as few strokes as possible helps...
Its funny you should say this because I totally agree with this line of thinking.... the info I've gleaned online about forming a 2K race plan often talks about "going really hard in the first 5 strokes (for me, this means touching about 1:18) and then slowly bringing it down to race pace over the following 15 to 20 seconds". This seem WAY too long! This technique spends too much energy off the top and often leaves me trying to catch my breath for the first 500m.

So for the race, I think I'm going to give 5 good pulls off the top and try to touch a more conservative peak pace of around 1:26 instead, then quickly settle into that 1:46 target pace (in under 10 seconds). Its my hope that not having to aggressively catch my breath at the beginning of the race should help give me some confidence for that last 500m dash.

I've put almost 1.2 million meters in this season. I'm ready for this.
Male, 45, 6ft / 241 lbs, 183cm / 109 kg / Started erging in Jan 2017
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jamesg
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by jamesg » January 31st, 2018, 4:17 am

According to this https://indoorsportservices.co.uk/eirc/ ... e_strategy you should be well below 7' if you have a recent 1:30 500 and done enough endurance work. Even the 6s guideline, though depending on pace and not Power, says more or less the same at 300W level. 90 + 12 =102: 1:42.

We see as race plans based on 500:
(1:30) 1:37.8 1:42.3 1:42.3 1:38.9 total 6:41.3
and
(1:34) 1:42.2 1:46.8 1:46.8 1:43.3 total 6:59.1

The table implies a 70% Power ratio between 2 and ½k.
The key is go slow in the first 500 and then slow down; at 500 you'll think this is easy, but slow down anyway. 2s faster represents 6% more power, which will kill. This leaves enough at 1500 to harden if needed.

Have fun.
78y, 188cm, 87kg, last seen MHR 163. 2k (24 May 19) 8.46.6@22

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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by gooseflight » January 31st, 2018, 4:52 am

jamesg wrote:(1:34) 1:42.2 1:46.8 1:46.8 1:43.3 total 6:59.1
This.

If the goal is sub 7 then this strategy means you're always under or on goal pace and you get a rest in the middle :wink:

Got to have the discipline to slow down for that second 500m. Just watch the average and don't worry about anything else. At 1500m you'll be at ~1:45 so let rip.
Roy Walter
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PBs (2004): 6:38 (2K) | 5:22.9 (mile) | 17:39.6 (5K) | 8323 (30 mins) | 36:52 (10K) | 1:22:03 (HM '05)

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bisqeet
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by bisqeet » January 31st, 2018, 6:32 am

i found another method is to calculate the power per stroke on all events -take the average and then calculate a 2k from there...

I think the sprint results don't really take the aerobic component of a 2k into consideration...

Edit: just thru some values in.
based on my longer aerobic stuff (FM/HM) - I should be targeting a 6:20 time compared to 6:40 on sprints...

I must say - all those sound very taxing and I have no doubt would hurt if i ever attempted them...*shudder*
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hjs
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by hjs » January 31st, 2018, 8:34 am

Re Pauls law.

I am so long around I knew Paul, his "law" was not ment to predict anything, but to see where a rowers strenght and weaknesses where to be found, so training could be partly based on those numbers.
500m was not included, this almost always is way out of line, often 2 seconds min faster compared to the line.
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Re: Using Paul's Law to predict my 2K race pace

Post by JerekKruger » January 31st, 2018, 9:49 am

I've never really understood that guide. Not only is the 500m poorly related to the 2k due to being predominantly anaerobic rather than aerobic, but the pacing guidelines it gives are just weird. Flat pacing is the most efficient from a physical point of view so the big difference in split times is basically throwing energy away for no gain in speed, and even from a mental point of view it wouldn't work for me: the first 500m is fast enough to be tough, the middle 1000m might be relatively easy but then you've suddenly got to pull out another pretty tough 500m at the end.

Each to his own naturally, but I'd never use this race plan. I'd much rather row a relatively flatly paced 2k with a slight negative split and a sprint right at the end.
Tom | 33 | 6'6" | 93kg

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